Airport Disruption Odds

Belfast International – Málaga: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled

Of 1,620 scheduled flights between Belfast International and Málaga in 2025, 1.4% (95% range 0.9%–2.1%) were cancelled (6) or at least 3 hours late (about 17) — roughly 1 in 71. That is worse than 63% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 2,003 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £350 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.

Data: CAA punctuality statistics, calendar year 2025 (published 25 February 2026) · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

1.4%3+ hours late or cancelled
1 in 71flights
£350UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault

The route in 2025

Scheduled flights (both directions)1,620
Cancelled6
Operated but 3 hours or more lateabout 17
On time or within 15 minutes75% of operated flights
Average delay of operated flights15 minutes
Distance2,003 km (great circle, BFS–AGP)

By direction

DirectionScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% range
From Belfast International8111.5%0.8%–2.6%
To Belfast International8091.4%0.8%–2.4%

By airline

AirlineScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% rangeCancelled
easyJet UK9331.5%0.9%–2.5%4
Ryanair UK2882.4%1.2%–4.9%2
Jet22180.5%0.1%–2.6%0
Ryanair1810.6%0.1%–3.1%0

The 95% ranges overlap, so on this route no airline is clearly better or worse than another. Airlines with at least 100 scheduled flights on the route; operating companies are shown as the CAA lists them (for example easyJet UK and easyJet Europe), because that decides whether UK261 or EU261 applies.

What you may be owed

DistanceDelay at arrivalUK261 compensation
2,003 km3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead£350 per passenger

Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at Málaga EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 2.7% of days in 2018–2026.

Caveats

CAA destination name: Malaga.