Airport Disruption Odds

Southampton – Belfast City: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled

Of 1,706 scheduled flights between Southampton and Belfast City in 2025, 3.0% (95% range 2.3%–4.0%) were cancelled (40) or at least 3 hours late (about 12) — roughly 1 in 33. That is worse than 90% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 508 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £220 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.

Data: CAA punctuality statistics, calendar year 2025 (published 25 February 2026) · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

3.0%3+ hours late or cancelled
1 in 33flights
£220UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault

The route in 2025

Scheduled flights (both directions)1,706
Cancelled40
Operated but 3 hours or more lateabout 12
On time or within 15 minutes80% of operated flights
Average delay of operated flights10 minutes
Distance508 km (great circle, SOU–BHD)

By direction

DirectionScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% range
From Southampton8533.2%2.2%–4.5%
To Southampton8532.9%2.0%–4.3%

Operated by Aer Lingus (1,646 scheduled flights).

What you may be owed

DistanceDelay at arrivalUK261 compensation
508 km3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead£220 per passenger

Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at Southampton EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 0.3% of days in 2018–2026.

Caveats

CAA destination name: Belfast City (George Best).