Airport Disruption Odds

How often does weather delay flights at Warszawa Chopina?

From January 2018 to September 2026, EUROCONTROL recorded arrival restrictions for weather (regulation reason W) at Warszawa Chopina (WAW) on 196 of 3,195 days (6.1%). The worst month is October: 12% of days and 0.2 minutes of weather delay per arriving flight on average. Calmest: March–April (1% of days). Weather caused 26% of all arrival-regulation delay minutes at this airport. Source: EUROCONTROL.

Data: EUROCONTROL arrival regulation data, January 2018 – September 2026 · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

6.1%of days with weather restrictions on arrivals
0.13minutes of weather delay per arriving flight
26%of arrival-regulation delay caused by weather

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Month by month

MonthDays with weather restrictionsDays with ≥ 1 min per arrivalMinutes per arriving flight
January11%6%0.23
February6%3%0.18
March1%1%0.02
April1%1%0.02
May6%3%0.14
June4%3%0.07
July7%3%0.13
August2%1%0.04
September4%1%0.06
October12%5%0.21
November10%4%0.23
December10%7%0.30

Share of days on which EUROCONTROL's network manager limited arrivals because of weather at or around the airport (regulation reason W), 2018–2026. Minutes per arriving flight = weather-regulation delay ÷ all arrivals that month. Worst weeks of the year: week 43 (20%), week 45 (20%), week 3 (19%).

Year by year

YearDays with weather restrictionsMinutes per arriving flightArrivals
201855 of 3650.3093,558
201939 of 3650.1697,062
20203 of 3660.0139,921
20211 of 3650.0047,354
20226 of 3650.0172,324
202310 of 3650.0282,661
202416 of 3660.1091,398
202547 of 3650.25100,055
2026 (Jan–Sep)19 of 2730.1477,761

2020–2021: far fewer flights during the pandemic.

Weather among all causes

Cause of arrival regulationShare of delay minutes
Aerodrome capacity61%
Weather26%
Air traffic control capacity8%
Atc staffing3%

Causes with at least 2% of all arrival-regulation delay minutes, 2018–2026.

What the weather was like on those days

In the airport's weather reports (METAR, 05–21 UTC)Days with weather restrictionsOther daysRatio
Thunderstorm reported16%4.3%3.7×
Fog or visibility under 800 m31%6.3%4.9×
Cloud base at or below 200 ft32%3.6%8.9×
Gusts of 30 knots or more3.6%3.9%0.9×
Crosswind of 20 knots or more on the best runway1.5%0.0%—
Snow17%10%1.7×
Freezing rain or drizzle2.6%0.7%—

On 30% of the restriction days none of these showed up in the airport's own reports: restrictions are also set on forecasts, for weather on the approach or elsewhere in the area, and when the wind direction forces a less efficient runway layout. The weather is what came with the delays, not proof of their cause. Based on 3,195 days with full METAR coverage.

The heaviest days

Date and reported weatherWeather delay, minutesArrivalsMinutes per arrival
9 November 2018
Fog or visibility under 800 m; Cloud base at or below 200 ft
4,39523119.0
27 December 2024
Fog or visibility under 800 m; Cloud base at or below 200 ft
3,04125511.9
22 February 2026
Cloud base at or below 200 ft
2,54524710.3
3 February 2018
Fog or visibility under 800 m; Cloud base at or below 200 ft
2,23519611.4
4 September 2025
Fog or visibility under 800 m
2,2353157.1

What these numbers cover