Airport Disruption Odds

Jersey – Guernsey: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled

Of 1,995 scheduled flights between Jersey and Guernsey in 2025, 4.6% (95% range 3.8%–5.6%) were cancelled (60) or at least 3 hours late (about 32) — roughly 1 in 22. That is worse than 96% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 39 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £220 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.

Data: CAA punctuality statistics, calendar year 2025 (published 25 February 2026) · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

4.6%3+ hours late or cancelled
1 in 22flights
£220UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault

The route in 2025

Scheduled flights (both directions)1,995
Cancelled60
Operated but 3 hours or more lateabout 32
On time or within 15 minutes67% of operated flights
Average delay of operated flights23 minutes
Distance39 km (great circle, JER–GCI)

By direction

DirectionScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% range
From Jersey9664.5%3.4%–6.0%
To Jersey1,0294.7%3.6%–6.2%

By airline

AirlineScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% rangeCancelled
Blue Islands1,6174.3%3.5%–5.5%40
Loganair2275.3%3.0%–9.0%12
Aurigny1516.6%3.6%–12%8

The 95% ranges overlap, so on this route no airline is clearly better or worse than another. Airlines with at least 100 scheduled flights on the route; operating companies are shown as the CAA lists them (for example easyJet UK and easyJet Europe), because that decides whether UK261 or EU261 applies.

What you may be owed

DistanceDelay at arrivalUK261 compensation
39 km3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead£220 per passenger

Caveats

CAA destination name: Guernsey.