Airport Disruption Odds

London Heathrow – Milan (Linate): how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled

Of 4,529 scheduled flights between London Heathrow and Milan (Linate) in 2025, 1.6% (95% range 1.3%–2.0%) were cancelled (63) or at least 3 hours late (about 11) — roughly 1 in 61. That is worse than 70% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 981 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £220 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.

Data: CAA punctuality statistics, calendar year 2025 (published 25 February 2026) · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

1.6%3+ hours late or cancelled
1 in 61flights
£220UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault

The route in 2025

Scheduled flights (both directions)4,529
Cancelled63
Operated but 3 hours or more lateabout 11
On time or within 15 minutes77% of operated flights
Average delay of operated flights11 minutes
Distance981 km (great circle, LHR–LIN)

By direction

DirectionScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% range
From London Heathrow2,2641.3%0.9%–1.9%
To London Heathrow2,2651.9%1.4%–2.6%

Operated by British Airways (4,529 scheduled flights).

What you may be owed

DistanceDelay at arrivalUK261 compensation
981 km3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead£220 per passenger

Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at Milan Linate EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 5.0% of days in 2018–2026.

Caveats

CAA destination name: Milan (Linate).