Airport Disruption Odds

London Heathrow – Tampa: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled

Of 722 scheduled flights between London Heathrow and Tampa in 2025, 0.8% (95% range 0.4%–1.8%) were cancelled (5) or at least 3 hours late (about 1) — roughly 1 in 120. That is better than 65% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 7,085 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £520 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.

Data: CAA punctuality statistics, calendar year 2025 (published 25 February 2026) · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

0.8%3+ hours late or cancelled
1 in 120flights
£520UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault

The route in 2025

Scheduled flights (both directions)722
Cancelled5
Operated but 3 hours or more lateabout 1
On time or within 15 minutes88% of operated flights
Average delay of operated flights7 minutes
Distance7,085 km (great circle, LHR–TPA)

By direction

DirectionScheduled flights3h+ late or cancelled95% range
From London Heathrow3610.8%0.3%–2.4%
To London Heathrow3610.8%0.3%–2.4%

Operated by Virgin Atlantic (685 scheduled flights).

What you may be owed

DistanceDelay at arrivalUK261 compensation
7,085 km3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead£520 per passenger

Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at London Heathrow EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 32% of days in 2018–2026.

Caveats

CAA destination name: Tampa.