London Heathrow – Warsaw: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled

Of 4,203 scheduled flights between London Heathrow and Warsaw in 2025, 0.8% (95% range 0.5%–1.1%) were cancelled (23) or at least 3 hours late (about 9) — roughly 1 in 132. That is better than 69% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 1,469 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £220 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.

Data: CAA punctuality statistics, calendar year 2025 (published 25 February 2026) · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

0.8%3+ hours late or cancelled

1 in 132flights

£220UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault

The route in 2025

Scheduled flights (both directions)	4,203
Cancelled	23
Operated but 3 hours or more late	about 9
On time or within 15 minutes	74% of operated flights
Average delay of operated flights	12 minutes
Distance	1,469 km (great circle, LHR–WAW)

By direction

Direction	Scheduled flights	3h+ late or cancelled	95% range
From London Heathrow	2,102	0.8%	0.5%–1.3%
To London Heathrow	2,101	0.7%	0.4%–1.2%

By airline

Airline	Scheduled flights	3h+ late or cancelled	95% range	Cancelled
LOT Polish Airlines	2,142	0.8%	0.5%–1.3%	14
British Airways	2,061	0.7%	0.4%–1.1%	9

The 95% ranges overlap, so on this route no airline is clearly better or worse than another. Airlines with at least 100 scheduled flights on the route; operating companies are shown as the CAA lists them (for example easyJet UK and easyJet Europe), because that decides whether UK261 or EU261 applies.

What you may be owed

UK261 compensation by great-circle distance; this route: 1,469 km

Distance	Delay at arrival	UK261 compensation
1,469 km	3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead	£220 per passenger

Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at Warszawa Chopina EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 6.1% of days in 2018–2026.

Caveats

This is an upper estimate of flights where compensation may be due. Weather, air traffic control, strikes by third parties and security problems are “extraordinary circumstances” and give no right to compensation; cancellations announced 14 days or more ahead do not either.
The CAA measures delay at the UK airport (departure or arrival). The legal test is the delay on arrival at the final destination.
Flights in both directions are combined. For flights from an EU airport, EU261 applies when the airline is an EU airline (€250 / €400 / €600), UK261 when it is a UK airline.

CAA destination name: Warsaw (Chopin).