Manchester – Belfast City: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled
Of 2,968 scheduled flights between Manchester and Belfast City in 2025, 5.4% (95% range 4.6%–6.3%) were cancelled (127) or at least 3 hours late (about 33) — roughly 1 in 19. That is worse than 97% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 274 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £220 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.
The route in 2025
| Scheduled flights (both directions) | 2,968 |
|---|---|
| Cancelled | 127 |
| Operated but 3 hours or more late | about 33 |
| On time or within 15 minutes | 75% of operated flights |
| Average delay of operated flights | 15 minutes |
| Distance | 274 km (great circle, MAN–BHD) |
By direction
| Direction | Scheduled flights | 3h+ late or cancelled | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Manchester | 1,485 | 5.6% | 4.5%–6.8% |
| To Manchester | 1,483 | 5.2% | 4.2%–6.5% |
By airline
| Airline | Scheduled flights | 3h+ late or cancelled | 95% range | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aer Lingus | 2,418 | 4.5% | 3.7%–5.4% | 78 |
| easyJet UK | 506 | 2.2% | 1.2%–3.8% | 8 |
The 95% ranges overlap, so on this route no airline is clearly better or worse than another. Airlines with at least 100 scheduled flights on the route; operating companies are shown as the CAA lists them (for example easyJet UK and easyJet Europe), because that decides whether UK261 or EU261 applies.
What you may be owed
| Distance | Delay at arrival | UK261 compensation |
|---|---|---|
| 274 km | 3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead | £220 per passenger |
Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at Manchester EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 3.8% of days in 2018–2026.
Caveats
- This is an upper estimate of flights where compensation may be due. Weather, air traffic control, strikes by third parties and security problems are “extraordinary circumstances” and give no right to compensation; cancellations announced 14 days or more ahead do not either.
- The CAA measures delay at the UK airport (departure or arrival). The legal test is the delay on arrival at the final destination.
- Flights in both directions are combined. For flights from an EU airport, EU261 applies when the airline is an EU airline (€250 / €400 / €600), UK261 when it is a UK airline.
CAA destination name: Belfast City (George Best).