Manchester – Guernsey: how often flights are 3+ hours late or cancelled
Of 1,252 scheduled flights between Manchester and Guernsey in 2025, 5.3% (95% range 4.2%–6.7%) were cancelled (41) or at least 3 hours late (about 25) — roughly 1 in 19. That is worse than 97% of 834 busy UK routes (median 1.1%). The route is 436 km, so when the airline is at fault UK261 compensation is £220 per passenger. This is an upper estimate: weather and air traffic control problems give no right to compensation. Source: UK CAA.
5.3%3+ hours late or cancelled
1 in 19flights
£220UK261 per passenger if the airline is at fault
The route in 2025
| Scheduled flights (both directions) | 1,252 |
|---|---|
| Cancelled | 41 |
| Operated but 3 hours or more late | about 25 |
| On time or within 15 minutes | 69% of operated flights |
| Average delay of operated flights | 20 minutes |
| Distance | 436 km (great circle, MAN–GCI) |
By direction
| Direction | Scheduled flights | 3h+ late or cancelled | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Manchester | 627 | 5.8% | 4.2%–7.9% |
| To Manchester | 625 | 4.7% | 3.3%–6.7% |
Operated by Aurigny (1,252 scheduled flights).
What you may be owed
| Distance | Delay at arrival | UK261 compensation |
|---|---|---|
| 436 km | 3 hours or more, or a cancellation less than 14 days ahead | £220 per passenger |
Weather is a frequent reason why no compensation is due: at Manchester EUROCONTROL restricted arrivals for weather on 3.8% of days in 2018–2026.
Caveats
- This is an upper estimate of flights where compensation may be due. Weather, air traffic control, strikes by third parties and security problems are “extraordinary circumstances” and give no right to compensation; cancellations announced 14 days or more ahead do not either.
- The CAA measures delay at the UK airport (departure or arrival). The legal test is the delay on arrival at the final destination.
- Flights in both directions are combined. For flights from an EU airport, EU261 applies when the airline is an EU airline (€250 / €400 / €600), UK261 when it is a UK airline.
- Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man are not part of the UK: UK261 covers these flights only when they depart from a UK airport, or arrive in the UK on a UK or EU airline.
CAA destination name: Guernsey.